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Monday, September 20, 2004

 Kerry leads in electoral votes

The latest Zogby Interactive poll of 16 battleground states shows that Kerry's lead has narrowed but appears to have stabilized. If the election were helld today, Kerry would get 297 electoral votes to Bush's 241.

The Zogby poll begins by assuming that DC and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. Thus Bush starts with 189 electoral votes, while Kerry begins with 172. (To win the White House, a candidate must capture 270 electoral votes.)

From that starting point, Zogby adds in the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margin of error or the spread between the candidates. Kerry's 11 states control 125 votes, while Bush's five states have 52. Thus, if the results on Election Day match the findings of the Zogby poll, Mr. Kerry would win, 297-241.

Although the 56-electoral-vote spread is at its narrowest since late July, Kerry has made more progress than Bush in solidifying his support in the battlegrounds that the Democrats won in 2000. The senator's lead is greater than the margin of error in five of the eight battlegrounds that Al Gore won. Bush's lead is greater than the margin of error in just one of the eight battlegrounds he won last election.


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