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Monday, September 20, 2004

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 Four reasons why Bush is the underdog

Martin Nolan has an interesting historical analysis on the current presidential race. Nolan argues that despite Bush's lead in the opinion polls, history and demographics suggest the president could wind up a loser in November
  1. A self-described "war president" needs to be winning the war at re-election time. US troops are bogged down in Iraq, and the death toll is growing.

  2. Bush and his party represent a declining demographic. The Republican Party is a white, male, Anglo-Saxon Protestant party, as photos from its convention show.

  3. Re-election is not the presidential norm. Only 11 presidents have served eight consecutive years. President Reagan was the last Republican president to be re-elected.

  4. Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. The three presidents who failed the first time around to win the popular vote did not return to the White House.

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